Key takeaways:
- The WTO says global trade isn’t growing as fast as we thought it would in 2023. It’s only going up by a tiny amount, just 0.8% this year.
- The slowdown in trade is happening because prices are going up, banks are being stricter with loans, and there are housing issues in some big countries. The war in Ukraine is making things even harder.
- Even though this year is tough for trade, experts think things could get better in 2024. If prices go down and borrowing gets easier, businesses could do better.
- There’s a problem with how goods are made and shipped around the world. This could make it harder for trade to get back on track.
- The WTO’s leader, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, says countries need to cooperate to keep trade strong and help everyone, especially poorer countries. Ralph Ossa, the WTO’s chief economist, reminds us businesses are still working together, which is keeping trade moving. But we need to stay alert and address the issues to ensure a strong trade recovery.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reduced its prediction for trade growth in 2023 because global manufacturing is facing difficulties.
The new estimate is a tiny 0.8% growth this year, down from the earlier prediction of 1.7% in April. The report also expects slower global economic growth in the coming years.
Why Trade Is Slowing Down
Several reasons are causing the slowdown in global trade. Prices are going up, and central banks are making it harder to borrow money.
There are also problems in housing markets in the US, Europe, and China. The conflict in Ukraine has added more uncertainty, making it tough for trade to bounce back.
Hope for Better Days
Although this year looks challenging, there’s hope for a trade rebound in 2024. As inflation gets under control and interest rates come down, businesses should stabilize. However, there’s a concern about supply chain problems that could hurt this recovery.
WTO’s Call for Cooperation
The WTO’s leader, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, is worried about the slowdown in trade and what it means for people worldwide. She’s calling on countries to work together to make sure the world trading system stays strong and helps everyone, especially poorer nations.
Economist’s Perspective
The WTO’s Chief Economist, Ralph Ossa, provided insight into the situation. He noted that while the global trade slowdown is evident, there’s hope on the horizon.
Ossa believes despite the challenges, businesses are still working together through complex supply chains. This cooperation is keeping things moving, but it’s crucial to remain vigilant and address the issues to ensure a strong trade recovery.◼
Business Bayani PH 
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